Forecasting AI progress: A research agenda

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Ross Gruetzemacher, Florian E. Dorner, Niko Bernaola-Alvarez, Charlie Giattino, David Manheim

Published: 01 Sept 2021, Last Modified: 30 Nov 2025Technological Forecasting and Social ChangeEveryoneRevisionsBibTeXCC BY-SA 4.0
Abstract: Highlights•A Delphi study was employed to create a research agenda for forecasting AI progress.•The research agenda identifies paths and concrete projects for future research.•AI forecasting is important for mitigating AI risks but carries its own risks, too.