A Hybrid Temporal–Spatial Framework Incorporating Prior Knowledge for Predicting Sparse and Intermittent Item Demand

Yufang Sun, Bing Guo, Chase Wu, Rui Lyu, Hongjuan Kang, Mingjie Zhao, Xin Chen, Kui Ye

Abstract: Accurately forecasting demand for intermittent items is essential for effective inventory control, improved service levels, and cost reduction. This study focuses on highly sparse, irregular, and volatile demand patterns and proposes a generalizable multi-source data-driven framework for intermittent demand forecasting, using automotive spare parts as a representative application scenario. The proposed framework integrates Transformer networks, multi-graph convolutional networks (GCNs), and a Mamba-based feature fusion module. The Transformer captures long-term temporal dependencies in historical demand sequences, while the multi-graph GCN incorporates prior knowledge—including traffic geography, socioeconomic indicators, and environmental attributes—to model spatial correlations across multiple supply nodes. The Mamba-based fusion module then integrates temporal and spatial features into a unified representation, enhancing predictive accuracy and robustness. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets of automotive spare parts in China show that the proposed framework exhibits competitive and often superior performance compared with TiDE, FSNet, Informer, and DLinear across multiple forecasting horizons (3-, 6-, and 9-step), as measured by RMSE, MAE, and R 2 . The proposed approach provides a practical and adaptable solution for forecasting intermittent demand, offering valuable support for dynamic inventory management.

External IDs:doi:10.3390/app16031381