QuEst: Enhancing Estimates of Quantile-Based Distributional Measures Using Model Predictions

Zhun Deng, Thomas P Zollo, Benjamin Eyre, Amogh Inamdar, David Madras, Richard Zemel

TL;DR: Rigorous method for combining real, observed data with machine learning model predictions to produce better estimates of important distributional risk measures.

Abstract: As machine learning models grow increasingly competent, their predictions can supplement scarce or expensive data in various important domains. In support of this paradigm, algorithms have emerged to combine a small amount of high-fidelity observed data with a much larger set of imputed model outputs to estimate some quantity of interest. Yet current hybrid-inference tools target only means or single quantiles, limiting their applicability for many critical domains and use cases. We present QuEst, a principled framework to merge observed and imputed data to deliver point estimates and rigorous confidence intervals for a wide family of quantile-based distributional measures. QuEst covers a range of measures, from tail risk (CVaR) to population segments such as quartiles, that are central to fields such as economics, sociology, education, medicine, and more. We extend QuEst to multidimensional metrics, and introduce an additional optimization technique to further reduce variance in this and other hybrid estimators. We demonstrate the utility of our framework through experiments in economic modeling, opinion polling, and language model auto-evaluation.

Lay Summary: We introduce QuEst, a method for combining real, observed data with machine learning model predictions to produce better estimates of important quantities. Our framework is especially useful for enhancing experimental findings in fields such as economics, sociology, education, medicine, as well as for evaluating language models.

Primary Area: Theory->Everything Else

Keywords: prediction-powered inference, L-statistics, auto-evaluation, distortion risk measures, synthetic data

Submission Number: 12866