Probabilistic Modeling of Assimilate-Contrast Effects in Online Rating Systems
Abstract: Online rating system serves as an indispensable building block for many web applications. Previous studies showed that due to assimilate-contrast effects, historical ratings could significantly distort users’ ratings, leading to low accuracy of product quality estimation and recommendation. To understand assimilate-contrast effects, an “accurate” model is still missing as previous models do not capture important factors like rating recency, selection bias, etc. Furthermore, an analytical framework to characterize product estimation accuracy under assimilate-contrast effects is also missing. This paper aims to fill in this gap. We propose a probabilistic model to quantify the aforementioned important factors on assimilate-contrast effects. We apply stochastic approximation theory to show that when the rating bias satisfies mild contraction conditions, the aggregate rating converges under aggregate opinion heterogeneity. We also apply non-stationary Markov chain theory to show that when the strength of assimilate-contrast satisfies mild stable conditions, the aggregate rating converges under rating recency. We also derive an equation to characterize the converged aggregate ratings. These conditions reveal important insights on how the aforementioned factors influence the convergence and guide the online rating system operator to design appropriate rating aggregation rules and rating displaying strategies. We apply it to rating prediction tasks and product recommendation tasks. Experiment results on four public datasets show that our model can improve the rating prediction and recommendation accuracy over previous models significantly, under various metrics like RMSE, NDCG, etc. We also demonstrate the flexibility of our model by showing that it can be applied to enhance other rating behavior models.
Loading