Amortized Variational Transdimensional Inference

Laurence Davies, Dan MacKinlay, Rafael Oliveira, Scott A Sisson

Keywords: Bayesian inference, variational inference, transdimensional inference, normalizing flows, Bayesian optimization

Abstract: The expressiveness of flow-based models combined with stochastic variational inference (SVI) has expanded the application of optimization-based Bayesian inference to highly complex problems. However, despite the importance of multi-model Bayesian inference, defined over a transdimensional joint model and parameter space, flow-based SVI has been limited to problems defined over a fixed-dimensional parameter space. We introduce CoSMIC normalizing flows (COntextually-Specified Masking for Identity-mapped Components), an extension to neural autoregressive conditional normalizing flow architectures that enables use of a single amortized variational density for inference over a transdimensional (multi-model) conditional target distribution. We propose a combined stochastic variational transdimensional inference (VTI) approach to training CoSMIC flows using ideas from Bayesian optimization and Monte Carlo gradient estimation. Numerical experiments show the performance of VTI on challenging problems that scale to high-cardinality model spaces.

Primary Area: Probabilistic methods (e.g., variational inference, causal inference, Gaussian processes)

Submission Number: 7071