FlexTSF: A universal forecasting model for time series with variable regularities

27 Sept 2024 (modified: 05 Feb 2025)Submitted to ICLR 2025EveryoneRevisionsBibTeXCC BY 4.0
Keywords: Time series forecasting, Universal forecasting model, Irregular time series, Regular time series, Self-supervised pre-training, Zero-shot learning
Abstract:

Developing a foundation model for time series forecasting across diverse domains has attracted significant attention in recent years. Existing works typically assume regularly sampled, well-structured data, limiting their applicability to more generalized scenarios where time series often contain missing values, unequal sequence lengths, and irregular time intervals between measurements. To cover diverse domains and handle variable regularities, we propose FlexTSF, a universal time series forecasting model that possesses better generalization and natively support both regular and irregular time series. FlexTSF produces forecasts in an autoregressive manner and incorporates three novel designs: VT-Norm, a normalization strategy to ablate data domain barriers, IVP Patcher, a patching module to learn representations from flexibly structured time series, and LED attention, an attention mechanism seamlessly integrating these two and propagate forecasts with awareness of domain and time information, enabling effective time series forecasting across varying regularities. Experiments on $12$ datasets show that FlexTSF outperforms state-of-the-art forecasting models respectively designed for regular and irregular time series. Furthermore, after self-supervised pre-training, FlexTSF shows exceptional performance in both zero-shot and few-show settings for time series forecasting.

Primary Area: learning on time series and dynamical systems
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Submission Number: 11847
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