Safety analysis of China's strategic material maritime Transport Channel based on Bayesian Network

Xue Chen, xin wang, Qing Yu, Lingling Feng

Abstract: Aiming at the influence of the maritime transport channel environment on the safety of maritime transport of strategic materials in China, a safety environment assessment model of the maritime transport channel based on the Bayesian network is proposed. First of all, fully considering the environmental impact factors of traditional maritime transport channels, and combining them with non-traditional factors such as shipping events and sudden public health events, an index system of environmental impact factors of maritime transport channels for strategic materials in China is constructed. Based on expert experience and historical data, a model of environmental factors for marine accident risk at key nodes of maritime transportation channels based on the Bayesian Network (BN) was proposed. At the same time, using the actual data of the key nodes of China's strategic materials maritime transport channel from 2012 to 2022, such as maritime casualties and other related environmental factors, the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is used to compensate for the absence of data and adaptively learn the parameters to update the parameters of the conditional probability table. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of the environmental factors affecting the safety of sea lanes is carried out. It is verified that the BN model can effectively identify the environmental factors of sea transport channels, and can accurately quantify the importance of environmental factors to the safety of sea transport of strategic materials in China. The analysis results show that the channel environment is the main factor affecting the safety of China's strategic materials maritime transport channels.

Submission Number: 24