Advancing real-time drilling trajectory prediction with an efficient nonlinear DDE model and online parameter estimation

Jiamin Xu

Abstract:

This study introduces a streamlined approach to predict planar drilling trajectory by employing an efficient
nonlinear Delay Differential Equation (DDE) model with high computational speed and predictive accuracy. The
efficient model is validated and compared with other models by utilizing not just data from existing literature but
also two sets of experimental data with two distinct rigs. Following the validation, the model is integrated with
an online estimation technique—calibrating one parameter in real-time using historical data—empowering it to
forecast drill bit paths with remarkable fidelity. The validation of the model and its estimation strategy underscores
their potential for application in real-time drilling control systems, setting a new benchmark for future
advancements in the field.