From Words to Worth: Newborn Article Impact Prediction with LLM

Penghai Zhao, Qinghua Xing, Jinyu Tian

Abstract: Predicting the future impact of newly published articles is pivotal for advancing scientific discovery in an era of unprecedented scholarly expansion. This paper introduces a promising approach, leveraging the capabilities of LLMs to predict the future impact of newborn articles solely based on titles and abstracts. Breaking away from traditional methods heavily reliant on external data, we propose fine-tuning the LLM to uncover the intrinsic semantic patterns shared by highly impactful articles from a vast collection of text-score pairs. These semantic features are further utilized to predict the proposed indicator, TNCSIsp, which incorporates favorable normalization properties across value, field, and time. To facilitate parameter-efficient fine-tuning of the LLM, we have also meticulously curated a dataset containing over 12,000 entries, each annotated with titles, abstracts, and their corresponding TNCSIsp values. Experimental results reveal an MAE of 0.216 and an NDCG@20 of 0.901, setting new benchmarks in predicting the impact of newborn articles. Finally, we present a real-world application example for predicting the impact of newborn journal articles to demonstrate its noteworthy practical value. Overall, our findings challenge existing paradigms and propose a shift towards a more content-focused prediction of academic impact, offering new insights for article impact prediction.