A Data Protection Method for Short-Term Traffic Prediction with Applications to Network Active Mode Operations

Xiamei Wen, Panchamy Krishnakumari, Serge P. Hoogendoorn

Abstract: Accurate prediction of active mode traffic is imperative for optimizing traffic operations in Intelligent Trans-portation Systems. However, existing data-driven approaches heavily rely on extensive datasets to achieve reliable traffic prediction. This dependence poses a challenge when it comes to data sharing, particularly when collecting information from multiple local clients, such as institutions, organizations, and mobile devices, and transmitting it to a central server for model training and application. To overcome this challenge and enhance data security, we introduce the FedASTGNN model for active mode traffic prediction. This approach combines the federated averaging (FedAvg) algorithm with an attention-based spatial-temporal graph neural network (ASTGNN) model. Subsequently, we conduct an evaluation to determine the performance gap between the centralized ASTGNN model and the proposed distributed FedASTGNN model. This evaluation takes into account the model's performance across different time aggregation intervals and prediction horizons. Moreover, considering the unique attributes and intricacies of active mode data, we create three scenarios to demonstrate the influence of diverse active mode data from different local clients (subnet-works) on the FedASTGNN model. The findings of our study illustrate that the FedASTGNN model effectively preserves the advantages of the ASTGNN model while ensuring data confidentiality in active mode traffic prediction. Furthermore, we observe that the performance of the FedASTGNN model is significantly affected by the varying degrees of imbalanced data distribution among subnetworks. The insights shed light on the potential and challenges presented by the FedASTGNN model as an efficient and secure solution for predicting active mode traffic in Intelligent Transportation Systems.