Life-stage Prediction for Product Recommendation in E-commerce

Peng Jiang, Yadong Zhu, Yi Zhang, Quan Yuan

Abstract: Although marketing researchers and sociologists have recognized the large impact of life stage on consumer's purchasing behaviors, existing recommender systems have not taken this impact into consideration. In this paper, we found obvious correlation between life stage and purchasing behavior in many E-commerce categories. For example, a mum may look for different suitable products when her baby is at different ages. Motivated by this, we introduce the conception of life stage into recommender systems and propose to predict a user's current life-stage and recommend products correspondingly. We propose a new Maximum Entropy Semi Markov Model to segment and label consumer life stage based on the observed purchasing data over time. In the mom-baby product category where the life stage transition is deterministic, we develop an efficient approximate solution using large scale logistic regression and a Viterbi-like algorithm. We also propose a Gaussian mixture model to efficiently handle multi-kids life stage prediction problem. We integrate the life stage information predicted into the recommender system behind the largest online shopping website taobao.com. Both offline and online experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed life-stage based recommendation approach.