A data mining approach to forecast behavior

Nihat Altintas, Michael A. Trick

Abstract: This study presents a data mining analysis of forecasting patterns in a supply chain. Multiple customers who are auto manufacturers order from a large auto parts supplier. The auto manufacturers provide forecasts for future orders and update them before the due date. The supplier uses these forecasts to plan production in advance. The accuracy of the forecasts varies from customer to customer. We provide a framework to analyze the forecast performance of the customers. There are different complexities in forecasts that are captured from our data set. Daily flow analysis helps to transform data and obtain accuracy ratios of forecasts. Customers are then classified based on their forecast performances. We demonstrate the application of some recent developments in clustering and pattern recognition analysis to performance analysis of customers.

External IDs:dblp:journals/anor/AltintasT14