Theoretical Guarantees for Causal Discovery on Large Random Graphs

ICLR 2026 Conference Submission17170 Authors

Keywords: causality, causal discovery, theoretical guarantees, single-variable interventions, large-scale causal discovery

Abstract: We investigate theoretical guarantees for the \emph{false-negative rate} (FNR)—the fraction of true causal edges whose orientation is not recovered, under single-variable random interventions and an $\epsilon$-interventional faithfulness assumption that accommodates latent confounding. For sparse Erdős--Rényi directed acyclic graphs, where the edge probability scales as $p_e = \Theta(1/d)$, we show that the FNR concentrates around its mean at rate $O\bigl(\tfrac{\log d}{\sqrt d}\bigr)$, implying that large deviations above the expected error become exponentially unlikely as dimensionality increases. This concentration ensures that derived upper bounds hold with high probability in large-scale settings. Extending the analysis to generalized Barabási--Albert graphs reveals an even stronger phenomenon: when the degree exponent satisfies $\gamma > 3$, the deviation width scales as $O\bigl(d^{\beta - \frac{1}{2}}\bigr)$ with $\beta = 1/(\gamma - 1) < \frac{1}{2}$, and hence vanishes in the limit. This demonstrates that realistic scale-free topologies intrinsically regularize causal discovery, reducing variability in orientation error. These finite-dimension results provide the first dimension-adaptive, faithfulness-robust guarantees for causal structure recovery, and challenge the intuition that high dimensionality and network heterogeneity necessarily hinder accurate discovery. Our simulation results corroborate these theoretical predictions, showing that the FNR indeed concentrates and often vanishes in practice as dimensionality grows.

Primary Area: causal reasoning

Submission Number: 17170