Agentic Uncertainty Reveals Agentic Overconfidence

Jean Kaddour, Srijan Patel, Gbetondji Jean-Sebastien Dovonon, Leo Richter, Pasquale Minervini, Matt J. Kusner

Track: Track 1: Technical Foundations for a Post-AGI World

Keywords: agents, uncertainty, llms

TL;DR: Can AI agents predict whether they will succeed at a task? We study agentic uncertainty by eliciting success probability estimates before, during, and after task execution. All agents exhibit agentic overconfidence.

Abstract: Can AI agents predict whether they will succeed at a task? We study agentic uncertainty by eliciting success probability estimates before, during, and after task execution. All results exhibit agentic overconfidence: some agents that succeed only 22% of the time predict 77% success. Counterintuitively, pre-execution assessment with strictly less information achieves better discrimination than standard post-execution review. Adversarial prompting reframing assessment as bug-finding achieves the best calibration.

Anonymization: This submission has been anonymized for double-blind review via the removal of identifying information such as names, affiliations, and identifying URLs.

Presenter: ~Jean_Kaddour1

Format: Yes, the presenting author will attend in person if this work is accepted to the workshop.

Funding: Yes, the presenting author of this submission falls under ICLR’s funding aims, and funding would significantly impact their ability to attend the workshop in person.

Submission Number: 11