Triple-Flow Dynamic Graph Convolutional Network for Wind Power Forecasting

Bin Li, Bo Ding, Wei Pang, Hongyin Ni

Abstract: Wind energy is a clean but intermittent and volatile energy source, and its large-scale integration into power systems poses great challenges to ensuring safe and stable operation and achieving scheduling optimization and effective energy planning of the power systems. Accurate wind power forecasting is an effective way to mitigate the impact of wind power instability on power systems. However, wind power data are often in the form of multivariate time series. Existing wind power forecasting research often directly models the temporal and spatial characteristics of coupled wind power time-series data, ignoring the heterogeneity of time and space, thereby limiting the model’s expressive power. To address the above problems, we propose a triple-flow dynamic graph convolutional network (TFDGCN) for short-term wind power forecasting. The proposed TFDGCN is a symmetric dynamic graph neural network with three branches. It decouples and learns features of three different dimensions: within a wind power variable sequence, between sequences, and between wind turbines. The proposed TFDGCN constructs dynamic sparse graphs based on cosine similarities within variable sequences, between variable sequences, and between wind turbine nodes, and feeds them into their respective dynamic graph convolution modules. Afterwards, TFDGCN utilizes linear attention encoders which fuse local position encoding (LePE) and rotational position encoding (RoPE) to learn global dependencies within variable sequences, between sequences, and between wind turbines, and provide prediction results. Extensive experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed TFDGCN outperforms other state-of-the-art methods. On the SDWPF and SD23 datasets, the proposed TFDGCN achieved mean absolute error values of 37.16 and 14.63, respectively, as well as root mean square error values of 44.84 and 17.56, respectively.

External IDs:doi:10.3390/sym17122026