A Generalized Propensity Learning Framework for Unbiased Post-Click Conversion Rate Estimation

Yuqing Zhou, Tianshu Feng, Mingrui Liu, Ziwei Zhu

Abstract: This paper addresses the critical gap in the unbiased estimation of post-click conversion rate (CVR) in recommender systems. Existing CVR prediction methods, such as Inverse Propensity Score (IPS) and various Doubly Robust (DR) based estimators, overlook the impact of propensity estimation on the model bias and variance, thus leading to a debiasing performance gap. We propose a Generalized Propensity Learning (GPL) framework to directly minimize the bias and variance in CVR prediction models. The proposed method works as a complement to existing methods like IPS, DR, MRDR, and DRMSE to improve prediction performance by reducing their bias and variance. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate the significant performance promotion brought by our proposed method. Data and code can be found at: https://github.com/yuqing-zhou/GPL.