Neural Stochastic Differential Games for Time-series Analysis

Sungwoo Park, Byoungwoo Park, Moontae Lee, Changhee Lee

Abstract: Modeling spatiotemporal dynamics with neural differential equations has become a major line of research that opens new ways to handle various real-world scenarios (e.g., missing observations, irregular times, etc.). Despite such progress, most existing methods still face challenges in providing a general framework for analyzing time series. To tackle this, we adopt stochastic differential games to suggest a new philosophy of utilizing interacting collective intelligence in time series analysis. For the implementation, we develop the novel gradient descent-based algorithm called deep neural fictitious play to approximate the Nash equilibrium. We theoretically analyze the convergence result of the proposed algorithm and discuss the advantage of cooperative games in handling noninformative observation. Throughout the experiments on various datasets, we demonstrate the superiority of our framework over all the tested benchmarks in modeling time-series prediction by capitalizing on the advantages of applying cooperative games. An ablation study shows that neural agents of the proposed framework learn intrinsic temporal relevance to make accurate time-series predictions.

Submission Number: 301