Epidemic Spread Optimization for Disease Containment with NPIs and Vaccination

Ya-Wen Teng, Yishuo Shi, De-Nian Yang, Wang-Chien Lee, Philip S. Yu, Ying-Liang Lu, Ming-Syan Chen

Abstract: The potential impact of epidemics, e.g., COVID-19, H1N1, and SARS, is severe on public health, the economy, education, and society. Before effective treatments are available and vaccines are fully deployed, combining Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) and vaccination strategies is the main approaches to contain the epidemic or live with the virus. Therefore, research for deciding the best containment operations to contain the epidemic based on various objectives and concerns is much needed. In this paper, we formulate the problem of Containment Operation Optimization Design (COOD) that optimizes the epidemic containment by carefully analyzing contacts between individuals. We prove the hardness of COOD and propose an approximation algorithm, named Multi-Type Action Scheduling (MTAS), with the ideas of Infected Ratio, Contact Risk, and Severity Score to select and schedule appropriate actions that implement NPIs and allocate vaccines for different groups of people. We evaluate MTAS on real epidemic data of a population with real contacts and compare it against existing approaches in epidemic and misinformation containment. Experimental results demonstrate that MTAS improves at least 200% over the baselines in the test case of sustaining public health and the economy. Moreover, the applicability of MTAS to various epidemics of different dynamics is demonstrated, i.e., MTAS can effectively slow down the peak and reduce the number of infected individuals at the peak.