Machine learning-based spatial downscaling and bias-correction framework for high-resolution temperature forecasting

Xiangrui Meng, Huan Zhao, Ting Shu, Junhua Zhao, Qilin Wan

Abstract: High-resolution temperature forecasting plays a crucial role in various applications such as climate impact assessment, hydrological modeling, and localized weather forecasting. The existing low-resolution forecast data may not accurately capture the fine-grained temperature patterns required for localized predictions. These forecasts may contain biases that need to be corrected for accurate results. Therefore, there is a need for an effective framework that can downscale low-resolution forecast data and correct biases to generate high-resolution temperature forecasts. The paper proposes a machine learning-based spatial downscaling and bias-correction framework for high-resolution temperature forecasting. The framework utilizes low-resolution forecast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and real-time 1km analysis product data from the National Meteorological Administration, to generate high-resolution 1km forecast temperature data. The framework consists of four modules: data acquisition module, data preprocessing module, downscaling and correction model module, and post-processing and visualization module. Through experiments, it demonstrated that the framework has superior performance and potential in meteorological data downscaling and correction and can be used to achieve real-time high-resolution temperature forecasting, which has important significance for various applications such as climate impact assessment, hydrological modeling, and localized weather forecasting.