Regional Multi-ship Collision Risk Analysis Based on Velocity Obstacle Method：a Case Study on the Pearl River Estuary

Qi Liu, Pengfei Chen, Junmin Mou, Linying Chen

TL;DR: The paper proposed a novel regional multi-ship collision risk analysis framework, which can provide a solid theoretical foundation for the deveolpment of intelligent ships and further enable the safety of ship navigation in maritime transportation.

Abstract: Analysis of regional multi-ship collision risk is essential for enhancing the efficiency of traffic management in maritime transportation. However, traditional collision risk analysis methods only assess the risk of collision from the viewpoint of ship pair encounters. In this research, a novel framework for analysing regional multi-ship collision risk based on Velocity Obstacle (VO) method is proposed. Firstly, the ships in specific sea areas are clustered with the density-based spatial clustering of applications with Noise to identify multi-ship encounter situations. Afterward, a new collision risk indicator utilizing VO-based time-varying risk measurement method is proposed to calculate the collision risk of the single ship. Secondly, the macro-regional collision risk is quantified by calculating the contribution of each ship and each cluster with the Shapley value in cooperative game. Finally, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed framework, we carried out a case study of the Pearl River Estuary in China using historical AIS data. The results show that the proposed framework for regional multi-ship collision risk analysis can help maritime surveillance operators identify the ships with high risk and gain a better understanding of regional collision risk from both microcosmic and macroscopic perspectives.

Submission Number: 14