Fuels Demand Forecasting: Identifying Leading Feature Sets, Prediction Strategy, and Regressors

Jonas Krause, Alexandre C. A. Beiruth, Jean Paul Barddal, Alceu S. Britto Jr., Vinícius M. A. de Souza

Abstract: Fuels are crucial for any country's development and economy, impacting various sectors such as transportation, industry, and electricity generation. Accurate prediction of monthly fuel demand can improve supply chain management, strategic decision-making, and financial planning for businesses while helping governments develop decarbonization policies and estimate pollutant emissions. This paper explores machine learning models to forecast fossil fuels and biofuel demand 12 months ahead, using univariate time series data representing the historical sales of 27 Brazilian states, one of the world's leading producers and consumers of fuels. We evaluate different time series feature sets, machine learning regression models, and prediction strategies to address the complexity of fuel sales influenced by factors such as economic conditions and geopolitical events. Our comprehensive evaluation aims to determine an effective setting for predictive models in the fuel domain. Our results show that popular feature extractors for time series, such as Catch22 and TsFresh, cannot improve the original data representation for most forecasting models. Although focused on Brazil, our findings apply to other countries, since the trained models do not rely on external variables, such as micro and macroeconomic indicators.