An Epidemic Model Based on Intra- and Inter-group Interactions

Wencong Geng, Guijuan Zhang, Dianjie Lu

Abstract: The global spread of COVID-19 causes great losses to human society. Accurate calculation of the scale of epidemic spread is of great significance for the implementation of corresponding epidemic prevention measures. However, the existing method ignores the group formed by social relations of the population, which reduces the accuracy of the epidemic spread number calculation. In this paper, we propose an epidemic model based on intra- and inter-group interactions. Firstly, we construct a dual network model of epidemic spread based on intra- and inter-group interactions. The network describes how epidemics spread intra- and inter-group. To capture the intergroup influences, we construct a model for social mobility to calculate the inter-group spread rate. Secondly, we propose a computational model for the epidemic spread. We calculate the infection probability of groups in the upper layer network by using a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC). We describe a dynamic evolution of the intra-group infection in the underlying network based on the mean field equation. And the number of infections in the population is calculated by integrating intra- and inter-group effects. Finally, we implement an epidemic spread simulation system to visualize the spread process. The experimental results show that the model can analyze the epidemic spread process more accurately.