Deep Popularity Prediction in Multi-Source Cascade with HERI-GCN

Zhen Wu, Jingya Zhou, Ling Liu, Chaozhuo Li, Fei Gu

Abstract: Popularity prediction is to predict the number of social network users involved in information diffusion. Recently, deep learning methods for popularity prediction advance traditional approaches that rely on hand-crafted features. However, existing approaches ignore the multi-source cascade that consists of multiple sub-cascades with different content but under the same topic. Different from single-source cascade, more cascading information can be observed from multi-source cascade and they are potentially correlated. How to correlate the diverse information and take advantage of them from both temporal and spatial aspects is critical for prediction. To this end, we propose a novel framework, called HEterogeneous Recurrent Integrated Graph Convolutional Neural Network (HERI-GCN). Specifically, we construct a heterogeneous cascade graph to model the multi-source cascade where time intervals are treated as heterogeneous time nodes. Besides, we propose a heterogeneous GCN to learn rich features from the multi-source cascade. RNN is organically integrated into the heterogeneous GCN to overcome the limited learning ability toward temporal and spatial data. We evaluate HERI-GCN through comparative experiments on three datasets. The experimental evaluation shows that HERI-GCN outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods.