Effective Social Network-Based Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines

Jiangzhuo Chen, Stefan Hoops, Achla Marathe, Henning S. Mortveit, Bryan L. Lewis, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Arash Haddadan, Parantapa Bhattacharya, Abhijin Adiga, Anil Vullikanti, Aravind Srinivasan, Mandy L. Wilson, Gal Ehrlich, Maier Fenster, Stephen G. Eubank, Christopher L. Barrett, Madhav V. Marathe

Abstract: We study allocation of COVID-19 vaccines to individuals based on the structural properties of their underlying social contact network. Using a realistic representation of a social contact network for the Commonwealth of Virginia, we study how a limited number of vaccine doses can be strategically distributed to individuals to reduce the overall burden of the pandemic. We show that allocation of vaccines based on individuals' degree (number of social contacts) and total social proximity time is significantly more effective than the usually used age-based allocation strategy in reducing the number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. The overall strategy is robust even: (i) if the social contacts are not estimated correctly; (ii) if the vaccine efficacy is lower than expected or only a single dose is given; (iii) if there is a delay in vaccine production and deployment; and (iv) whether or not non-pharmaceutical interventions continue as vaccines are deployed. For reasons of implementability, we have used degree, which is a simple structural measure and can be easily estimated using several methods, including the digital technology available today. These results are significant, especially for resource-poor countries, where vaccines are less available, have lower efficacy, and are more slowly distributed.