Exploiting Language Power for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables

Qihe Huang, Zhengyang Zhou, Kuo Yang, Yang Wang

Track: Web mining and content analysis

Keywords: Time Series Forecasting; Exogenous Variables

Abstract:

The World Wide Web thrives on intelligent services that depend heavily on accurate time series forecasting to navigate dynamic and evolving environments. Due to the partially-observed nature of real world, exclusively focusing on the target of interest, so-called \textit{endogenous variables}, is insufficient for accurate forecasting, especially in web systems that are susceptible to external influences.
Thus, utilizing \textit{exogenous variables} to harness external information, i.e., forecasting with exogenous variable (FEV), is imperative.
Nevertheless, as the external environment is complex and ever-evolving, inadequately capturing external influences can even lead to learning spurious correlations and invalid prediction. Fortunately, recent studies have demonstrated that large language models (LLMs) exhibit exceptional recognition capabilities across open real-world systems, including a deep understanding of exogenous environments. However, it is difficult to directly apply LLMs for FEV due to challenges of task activation, exogenous knowledge extraction, and feature space alignment. In this work, we devise ExoLLM, an \underline{LLM}-driven method to sufficiently utilize \underline{Exo}genous variables for time series forecasting. We begin by Meta-task Instruction to activate the knowledge transfer of LLM from natural language processing to FEV. To comprehensively understand the intricate and hierarchical influences of exogenous variables, we propose Multi-grained Prompts, encompassing diverse external influences, including natural attributes, trend correlations, and period relationships between two types of variables. Additionally, a Dual TS-Text Attention is devised to bridge the feature gap between text and numeric data in LLM.
Evaluation on real-world datasets demonstrates ExoLLM's superiority in exploiting exogenous information for forecasting with open-world language knowledge. Code is available at \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ExoLLM}.

Submission Number: 48