Spatio-Temporal Multivariate Probabilistic Modeling for Traffic Prediction

Yang An, Zhibin Li, Xiaoyu Li, Wei Liu, Xinghao Yang, Haoliang Sun, Meng Chen, Yu Zheng, Yongshun Gong

Abstract: Traffic prediction is an essential task in intelligent transportation systems dealing with complex and dynamic spatio-temporal correlations. To date, most work is focused on point estimation models, which only output a single value w.r.t an attribute of traffic data at a time, falling short of depicting diverse situations and uncertainty in future. Besides, most methods are not flexible enough to handle real complex traffic scenarios, involving missing values and non-uniformly sampled data. The interactions among different attributes of traffic data are also rarely explored explicitly. In this paper, we focus on probabilistic estimation in traffic prediction tasks, proposing a spatio-temporal multivariate probabilistic predictive model to estimate the distributions of traffic data. Specifically, we devise a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion graph block to extract spatio-temporal correlations of multiple traffic attributes at different locations. A multi-graph fusion module is designed to capture time-varying spatial relationships. We estimate the joint distributions of missing traffic data using copulas. The proposed model can simultaneously perform traffic forecasting and interpolation tasks with non-uniformly sampled data. Our experiments on two real-world traffic datasets demonstrate the advantages of our model over the state-of-the-art1.