Prediction of Typhoon Pathway Points Based on Zhang Extrapolation (ZE) Formula for Points 1 to 3

Tang Chengwen, Li Litian, Wang Tao, Yunong Zhang

TL;DR: This study evaluates the effectiveness of Zhang extrapolation (ZE) formulas, on the basis of equally spaced time point sequence, in predicting typhoon pathways using limited historical data.

Abstract: This study evaluates the effectiveness of Zhang extrapolation (ZE) formulas, on the basis of equally spaced time point sequence, in predicting typhoon pathways using limited historical data. The ZE formulas for 1 through 3 points are tested on typhoons Saudel, Molave, and Krovanh, using a dataset from the Wenzhou typhoon network (WTN). Statistical analyses reveal that the point-1 extrapolation consistently offers superior accuracy, with mean absolute error and great-circle distance metrics within practical limitations. Comparisons with other methods show the proposed ZE formulas deliver higher precision, making them highly enhance applications in maritime safety and emergency response.

Submission Number: 76