Keywords: bayesian deep learning, uncertainty quantification, overconfidence, gaussian processes
Abstract: A Bayesian treatment can mitigate overconfidence in ReLU nets around the training data. But far away from them, ReLU Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) can still underestimate uncertainty and thus be asymptotically overconfident. This issue arises since the output variance of a BNN with finitely many features is quadratic in the distance from the data region. Meanwhile, Bayesian linear models with ReLU features converge, in the infinite-width limit, to a particular Gaussian process (GP) with a variance that grows cubically so that no asymptotic overconfidence can occur. While this may seem of mostly theoretical interest, in this work, we show that it can be used in practice to the benefit of BNNs. We extend finite ReLU BNNs with infinite ReLU features via the GP and show that the resulting model is asymptotically maximally uncertain far away from the data while the BNNs' predictive power is unaffected near the data. Although the resulting model approximates a full GP posterior, thanks to its structure, it can be applied post-hoc to any pre-trained ReLU BNN at a low cost.
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TL;DR: We propose a post-hoc extension, constructed by considering infinitely many ReLU features, for standard ReLU BNNs. This extension effectively fixes ReLU BNNs' overconfidence far away from the training data.
Supplementary Material: pdf