Modelling for Policy Without Policy Modelling

Alexander Melchior, Frank Dignum

Abstract:

This paper reflects on the efforts of the ABM community to
model for policy from our perspective as policy developer. Our goal is
to enrich the understanding the community of this perspective on the
policy processes and draw attention to more opportunities for modelling
in the policy process. We make this explicit by introducing the problem
cycle as part of the policy process. The problem cycle can be understood
as an iterative process that precedes the policy cycle and has its own
goals and results. By modelling in the problem cycle modellers can add
valuable contributions to the policy process without modelling a policy.
We provide three initial tools to modellers to advance their thinking on
how to do this. One: a mapping showing the usefulness of the various
model(ling) goals for each policy phase. Two: a classification of different
types of governments and what they value. Three: an introduction to
actionable perspectives as an effective way to present results to policy.We
conclude by stressing that it is always important to have conversations
with policy people on equal footing to identify how to usefully model for
policy without modelling a policy.