Hot streaks and disruptiveness in the career of scientists: is there an association between both phenomena?

Hongkan Chen, Lutz Bornmann, Yi Bu

Abstract: The creative output of scientists may be very different: Some papers may have a disruptive impact on science, some may consolidate existing knowledge, some may be highly influential, and others may yet have untapped potential (“sleeping beauty”). Unlike some previous studies that have explored the relationship between the impact and disruptiveness of papers, this study examines the disruptiveness of research during high impact periods (i.e., “hot streaks”) in scientists’ careers. By analyzing the career data of 21,271 economists, this study finds that disruptiveness of scientific publications is higher during researchers’ hot streaks than in their other periods of careers. Similar to existing works that highlighted a random rule in terms of the occurrence of hot streaks, we also observe the randomness rule for the occurrence of disruptive work among scientists’ careers. We find that researchers’ most disruptive years are oftentimes earlier than their most highly cited years. A higher publication volume of researchers increases the likelihood of entering hot streaks and producing disruptive publications. We conclude that both scientists and funding agencies can assume the randomness of phases with important papers in scientific careers. But when these phases occur, impactful and disruptive papers can be expected.

External IDs:doi:10.1057/s41599-025-05701-2