Abstract: The metaverse is a human-centric beyond-reality virtual world, in which people use virtual identities to live, work, and socialize. Due to the openness and sharing of metaverse applications, the virtual-real identity link (VRIL) may cause uncertainties and unpredictable risks. At present, the research on VRIL risks is still in its infancy and VRIL risk predictions lack a comprehensive theoretical system and methodological tool. In this paper, we first construct a VRIL attack model, according to which an attacker can link a user’s real and virtual identities together using the information observed in the real and virtual worlds. Then we propose the tuple frequency-based VRIL prediction (TupPre) model and discover the population distribution, recursive hypergeometric (RH) distribution, and approximate binomial distribution of the tuple frequency (i.e., the occurrence times of attribute value combinations) given incomplete information. Focusing on the tuple frequency estimation error in biased samples, we introduce attribute value correlation knowledge to improve the prediction performance. The experimental results on generated and real-world datasets show that the TupPre model has excellent performance, with a mean area under the curves (AUCs) of 0.86 to 0.98 on these datasets, and it performs even more superior with certain background knowledge (mean AUC 0.95~0.98). The discovered basic distribution rules of the tuple frequency and the proposed quantitative analysis method for metaverse VRIL risk predictions construct the foundation of the identity privacy framework for the metaverse.
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