Exploring Livelihood Dynamics and Policy Interventions in Mangrove Social-Ecological Systems with Agent-Based Modeling: A Mesa Framework Approach

Anik Saha, HM Shadman Tabib, M. Sohel Rahman

Abstract:

Mangrove ecosystems represent critical interfaces between human societies and natural systems, providing
essential ecological services, vital resources, and economic sustenance to coastal livelihoods. While Agent-Based
Modelling (ABM) based on Socio-Ecological Systems (SES) theory have advanced the understanding of such
dynamic interactions, current approaches have rarely explored the possibility of designing optimal policy inter
ventions using modeling techniques. We employ MESA, a flexible and computationally efficient Python-based
framework, to model the socio-ecological dynamics of an area in the Sundarbans, the largest mangrove forest in
the world. Our model description follows the ODD (Overview, Design concepts, Details) protocol to ensure trans
parency and reproducibility. Through simulations, we demonstrate that more dynamic and adaptive policies have
greater potential in promoting ecological stability, while widespread non-compliant behavior among agents under
mines the effectiveness of even the most robust intervention strategies. The model implementation and analysis
code are made available as open-source software to facilitate replication and extension of this work.