Variational Mode Decomposition and Linear Embeddings are What You Need For Time-Series Forecasting

ICLR 2025 Conference Submission2413 Authors

Keywords: Decomposition; Time-series forecasting; Linear models

Abstract: Time-series forecasting often faces challenges due to data volatility, which can lead to inaccurate predictions. Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) has emerged as a promising technique to mitigate volatility by decomposing data into distinct modes, enhancing forecast accuracy. This study integrates VMD with linear models to develop a robust forecasting framework. Our approach is evaluated on 13 diverse datasets, including ETTm2, WindTurbine, M4, and 10 air quality datasets from Southeast Asian cities. The effectiveness of the VMD strategy is assessed by comparing Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values from models utilizing VMD against those without it. Additionally, we benchmark linear-based models against well-known neural network architectures such as LSTM, BLSTM, and RNN. The results demonstrate a significant reduction in RMSE across nearly all models following VMD application. Notably, the Linear + VMD model achieved the lowest average RMSE in univariate forecasting at 0.619. In multivariate forecasting, the DLinear + VMD model consistently outperformed others, attaining the lowest RMSE across all datasets with an average of 0.019. These findings underscore the effectiveness of combining VMD with linear models for superior time-series forecasting.

Primary Area: learning on time series and dynamical systems

Code Of Ethics: I acknowledge that I and all co-authors of this work have read and commit to adhering to the ICLR Code of Ethics.

Submission Guidelines: I certify that this submission complies with the submission instructions as described on https://iclr.cc/Conferences/2025/AuthorGuide.

Reciprocal Reviewing: I understand the reciprocal reviewing requirement as described on https://iclr.cc/Conferences/2025/CallForPapers. If none of the authors are registered as a reviewer, it may result in a desk rejection at the discretion of the program chairs. To request an exception, please complete this form at https://forms.gle/Huojr6VjkFxiQsUp6.

Anonymous Url: I certify that there is no URL (e.g., github page) that could be used to find authors’ identity.

No Acknowledgement Section: I certify that there is no acknowledgement section in this submission for double blind review.

Submission Number: 2413