Aurora: A Foundation Model of the Atmosphere

Cristian Bodnar, Wessel P. Bruinsma, Ana Lucic, Megan Stanley, Johannes Brandstetter, Patrick Garvan, Maik Riechert, Jonathan A. Weyn, Haiyu Dong, Anna Vaughan, Jayesh K. Gupta, Kit Thambiratnam, Alex Archibald, Elizabeth Heider, Max Welling, Richard E. Turner, Paris Perdikaris

Abstract: Deep learning foundation models are revolutionizing many facets of science by leveraging vast amounts of data to learn general-purpose representations that can be adapted to tackle diverse downstream tasks. Foundation models hold the promise to also transform our ability to model our planet and its subsystems by exploiting the vast expanse of Earth system data. Here we introduce Aurora, a large-scale foundation model of the atmosphere trained on over a million hours of diverse weather and climate data. Aurora leverages the strengths of the foundation modelling approach to produce operational forecasts for a wide variety of atmospheric prediction problems, including those with limited training data, heterogeneous variables, and extreme events. In under a minute, Aurora produces 5-day global air pollution predictions and 10-day high-resolution weather forecasts that outperform state-of-the-art classical simulation tools and the best specialized deep learning models. Taken together, these results indicate that foundation models can transform environmental forecasting.