Abstract: Return of fear after exposure poses a significant challenge for treatment of anxiety dis-
orders. In this study, we used computational modeling to test competing mechanisms
underlying spontaneous recovery of fear over time. We fit computational models of a
novel theory of spontaneous recovery—selective maintenance of aversive memories—
to behavior from a fear conditioning and extinction task (N=316), and showed that they
uniquely captured spontaneous recovery and quantitatively outperformed alternative
models embodying theories from the literature. The results were supported across multiple datasets, including a preregistered replication (N=355) and a sample with mental
health symptoms (N=520). The selective maintenance modeling framework additionally offers mechanistic insights into overgeneralization and the development of anxiety. Indeed, in the symptomatic sample we found that symptoms of generalized anxiety
disorder correlated with estimates of overgeneralization in the model. Through simulations, we further demonstrated that insights from our model can explain how targeted
interventions such as retrieval cues and cognitive interventions can prevent the return
of fear. These results highlight selective maintenance of aversive events in memory as
a critical and testable target for improving anxiety treatments and preventing relapse.
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