Twofold multiprior preferences and failures of contingent reasoning

Federico Echenique, Masaki Miyashita, Yuta Nakamura, Luciano Pomatto, Jamie Vinson

Abstract: We propose a model of incomplete twofold multiprior preferences, in which an act f is ranked above an act g only when f provides higher utility in a worst-case scenario than what g provides in a best-case scenario. The model explains failures of contingent reasoning, captured through a weakening of the state-by-state monotonicity (or dominance) axiom. Our model gives rise to rich comparative statics results, as well as extension exercises, and connections to choice theory. We present an application to second-price auctions.