Gaussian Mixture Counterfactual Generator
Keywords: Gaussian mixture model, synthetic data generation, clinical trial, individual treatment effect, counterfactual generation
Abstract: We address the individualized treatment effect (ITE) estimation problem, focusing on continuous, multidimensional, and time-dependent treatments for precision medicine. The central challenge lies in modeling these complex treatment scenarios while capturing dynamic patient responses and minimizing reliance on control data. We propose the Gaussian mixture counterfactual generator (GMCG), a generative model that transforms the Gaussian mixture model—traditionally a tool for clustering and density estimation—into a new tool explicitly geared toward causal inference. This approach generates robust counterfactuals by effectively handling continuous and multidimensional treatment spaces. We evaluate GMCG on synthetic crossover trial data and simulated datasets, demonstrating its superior performance over existing methods, particularly in scenarios with limited control data. The effectiveness of GMCG is attributed to its accurate modeling of treatment-outcome relationships and its adaptability to diverse clinical contexts. GMCG shows promise for enhancing ITE estimation in precision medicine, offering a potential unified solution for personalized therapeutic strategies.
Primary Area: causal reasoning
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Submission Number: 12561
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