Hidden Markov model based terminal area safety margin evaluation tool (TASMET)

Shreyas Subramanian

Abstract: II. Introduction recent study by the FAA Air Traffic Safety Oversight organization analyzed recent equipment outages for loss of separation (LOS) events. They found that there were identifiable impacts. For example, they concluded that an instrument landing system (ILS) outage at IAD contributed to a LOS over 20 miles away. Their explanation was that the outage increased controller workload and the shift in attention resulted in a lack of attention to other flights. More generally, the FAA conclusion was that the outage did not necessarily increase total risk but shifted it to a different area. Understanding how risks may shift under different functional states would be valuable guidance to controllers and their supervisors, and would be an excellent early RSSA achievement for decision support monitoring and alerting.