I Can't Believe It Can't Count: Vision-Language Models Fail at Basic Enumeration Beyond the Subitizing Range

Amirhossein Afsharrad, Seyed Shahabeddin Mousavi, Sanjay Lall

Keywords: Vision-language models, Object counting, Enumeration, Subitizing, VLM evaluation

TL;DR: GPT-5.2 achieves 93% accuracy counting ≤9 dots, then collapses to near-zero. Beyond 70 dots, it just guesses "around 100." State-of-the-art VLMs can't count—don't trust them for medical imaging or crowd safety.

Abstract:

Reward modeling is crucial for aligning large language models with human preferences, yet current approaches lack a principled mathematical framework for leveraging ordinal preference data. When human annotators provide graded preferences on a Likert scale (e.g., significantly better, better, slightly better, negligibly better), existing methods typically apply ad-hoc heuristics, such as margin terms or scaling factors, to loss functions derived from binary preference models like Bradley-Terry. These approaches lack an underlying mathematical model for how ordinal preference data is generated. We present a theoretically grounded framework that formulates reward modeling with Likert scale preferences as a discrete ordinal regression problem. We derive two loss functions from this formulation: a negative log-likelihood loss and an all-threshold loss, both of which learn threshold parameters that naturally capture the ordinal structure of preferences. Unlike existing heuristic methods that manually specify fixed margins or scaling weights, our approach learns these parameters directly from data within a coherent probabilistic framework. Experimental results on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that our ordinal regression approach consistently achieves competitive or superior performance compared to existing heuristic methods across diverse evaluation categories including chat, reasoning, and safety tasks.
Our work provides the first principled mathematical framework for incorporating Likert scale preferences into reward model training, moving beyond ad-hoc modifications of binary preference models to enable more effective utilization of fine-grained human feedback.

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Submission Number: 97