Accelerating Exploration of Marine Cloud Brightening Impacts on Tipping Points Using an AI Implementation of Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem.Download PDF

01 Aug 2023AAAI 2023 Spring Symposium Series ACTD SubmissionReaders: Everyone
Keywords: climate intervention, climate change, fluctuation dissipation theorem
Abstract: Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is a proposed climate intervention technology to partially offset greenhouse gas warming and possibly avoid crossing climate tipping points. The climate impacts of MCB are typically estimated using computationally expensive Earth System Model (ESM) simulations, preventing a thorough assessment of the large possibility space of MCB intervention patterns. Here, we describe an AI model, named AiBEDO, that can be used to rapidly project climate responses via a novel application of the Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem (FDT). AiBEDO is a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) model that maps from monthlymean radiation anomalies to surface climate anomalies at a range of time lags. By leveraging a internal climate noise from a large existing dataset of ESM simulations, we use AiBEDO to construct an FDT operator that successfully projects the pattern of MCB climate responses when evaluated against ESM simulations. We propose that AiBEDO could be used to identify MCB forcing patterns to that reduce tipping point risks while minimizing negative side effects in other parts of the climate.
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