Causal Modelling Agents: Causal Graph Discovery through Synergising Metadata- and Data-driven Reasoning

Ahmed Abdulaal, adamos hadjivasiliou, Nina Montana-Brown, Tiantian He, Ayodeji Ijishakin, Ivana Drobnjak, Daniel C. Castro, Daniel C. Alexander

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Keywords: Causal Reasoning, Causal Discovery, Structural Causal Models, Large Language Models

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Abstract: Scientific discovery hinges on the effective integration of metadata, which refers to a set of 'cognitive' operations such as determining what information is relevant for inquiry, and data, which encompasses physical operations such as observation and experimentation. This paper introduces the Causal Modelling Agent (CMA), a novel framework that synergizes the metadata-based reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) with the data-driven modelling of Deep Structural Causal Models (DSCMs) for the task of causal discovery. We evaluate the CMA's performance on a number of benchmarks, as well as on the real-world task of modelling the clinical and radiological phenotype of Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Our experimental results indicate that the CMA can outperform previous data-driven or metadata-driven approaches to causal discovery. In our real-world application, we use the CMA to derive new insights into the causal relationships among biomarkers of AD.

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Primary Area: causal reasoning

Submission Number: 8513