Predicting changes in protein thermodynamic stability upon point mutation with deep 3D convolutional neural networks

Bian Li, Yucheng T. Yang, John A. Capra, Mark B. Gerstein

Abstract: Author summary The thermodynamic stability of a protein, usually represented as the Gibbs free energy for the biophysical process of protein folding (ΔG), is a fundamental thermodynamic quantity. Predicting mutation-induced changes in protein thermodynamic stability (ΔΔG) is of great interest in protein engineering, variant interpretation, and protein biophysics. However, predicting ΔΔGs in an accurate and unbiased manner has been a long-standing challenge in the field of computational biology. In this work, we introduce ThermoNet, a deep, 3D-convolutional neural network (3D-CNNs) designed for structure-based ΔΔG prediction. To leverage the image-processing power inherent in CNNs, we treat protein structures as if they were multi-channel 3D images. ThermoNet demonstrates performance comparable to the best available methods. In addition, ThermoNet accurately predicts the effects of both stabilizing and destabilizing mutations, while most other methods exhibit a strong bias towards predicting destabilization. We also demonstrate that the presence of homologous proteins in commonly used training and testing sets for ΔΔG prediction methods has likely influenced previous performance estimates. Finally, we highlight the practical utility of ThermoNet by applying it to predicting the ΔΔGs for two clinically relevant proteins, p53 and myoglobin, and for pathogenic and benign missense variants from ClinVar.