Fast and Robust Simulation-Based Inference With Optimization Monte Carlo

Vasileios Gkolemis, Christos Diou, Michael U. Gutmann

TL;DR: We introduce R2OMC, a runtime-efficient approach to simulation-based inference in high dimensions.

Abstract: Bayesian parameter inference for complex stochastic simulators is challenging due to intractable likelihood functions. Existing simulation-based inference methods often require large number of simulations and become costly to use in high-dimensional parameter spaces or in problems with partially uninformative outputs. We propose a new method for differentiable simulators that delivers accurate posterior inference with substantially reduced runtimes. Building on the Optimization Monte Carlo framework, our approach reformulates stochastic simulation as deterministic optimization problems. Gradient-based methods are then applied to efficiently navigate toward high-density posterior regions and avoid wasteful simulations in low-probability areas. A JAX-based implementation further enhances the performance through vectorization of key method components. Extensive experiments, including high-dimensional parameter inference, uninformative outputs, multiple observations, multimodal posteriors, and real-world applications, show that our method consistently matches the accuracy of state-of-the-art approaches and reduces the runtime by a substantial margin.

Submission Number: 1393