The Commoditization Pathways of Graphics Processing Units: A Literature-Based Analysis of Market Transformation Dynamics

Prashaant Ranganathan

Keywords: GPU commoditization, CUDA ecosystem, performance thresholds, cloud abstraction, platform lock-in, semiconductor market evolution, AI infrastructure, enterprise procurement

TL;DR: GPUs are on a 5–8 year path to commoditization, driven by software optimization and cloud abstraction, with CUDA ecosystem lock-in as the main resistance.

Abstract: This paper presents a systematic literature-based analysis of Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) commoditization pathways, examining how specialty hardware markets transform into commodity markets. Through analysis of 29 academic and industry papers, we validate three theoretical pathways for GPU commoditization: Performance Threshold Theory, Software Ecosystem Barrier Theory, and Market Structure Transformation Theory. Our evidence-based framework indicates inevitable but gradual commoditization over a 5–8 year timeline, with NVIDIA’s CUDA ecosystem representing the primary resistance mechanism. The analysis reveals that software optimization advances (exemplified by DeepSeek R1) combined with cloud abstraction trends create accelerating commoditization pressure, while platform lock-in effects provide temporary but diminishing competitive advantages. These findings have significant implications for technology manufacturers, enterprise procurement strategies, and technology policy.

Submission Number: 316