Long-Term Urban Flow Prediction Against Data Distribution Shift: A Causal Perspective

Yuting Liu, Qiang Zhou, Hanzhe Li, Fuzhen Zhuang, Jingjing Gu

Abstract: The demand for more precise and timely urban resource allocation and management has driven the extension of urban flow prediction from short-term to long-term horizons. As the time scale expands, the issue of urban flow distribution shift becomes increasingly prominent due to various impact factors, such as weather, events, city changes, etc. Traditionally, comprehensively analyzing and addressing the causal relationships underlying the distribution shift caused by these factors has been challenging. In this paper, we propose that these impact factors can be partitioned in two major types, i.e., context factors and structural factors. We then present a decomposition-based model for long-term urban flow prediction from a causal perspective, named DeCau, which can discriminate between the two types of factors for effectively solving the problem of urban flow distribution shift. First, we employ a decomposition module to decompose urban flow into seasonal part and trend part. The seasonal part contains high frequency irregular variations caused by context factors. We advise a shared distribution estimator to approximate the unavailable prior distributions of context factors, and then apply causal intervention to mitigate the confounding impact of context factors. The distribution shift in the trend part is induced by structural factors. We design a dual causal dependency extractor to model the causality between POIs distribution and urban flow, and then eliminate spurious correlations through causal adjustment. Finally, we design an end-to-end framework for long-term urban flow prediction by combining the embeddings from two parts, enabling the model to generalize to unseen distribution. Extensive experimental results demonstrate DeCau outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

External IDs:dblp:journals/tkde/LiuZLZG25