Multi-time-horizon Solar Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Network

Anonymous

Abstract: The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors. This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby negatively affecting the reliability and resulting in increased cost of operation. This research paper proposes a unified architecture for multi-time-horizon solar forecasting for short and long-term predictions using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). The paper describes an end-to-end pipeline to implement the architecture along with methods to test and validate the performance of the prediction model. The results demonstrate that the proposed method based on the unified architecture is effective for multi-horizon solar forecasting and achieves a lower root-mean-squared prediction error compared to the previous best performing methods which use one model for each time-horizon. The proposed method enables multi-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs, which have a high potential for practical applications in the evolving smart grid.

TL;DR: This paper proposes a Unified Recurrent Neural Network Architecture for short-term multi-time-horizon solar forecasting and validates the forecast performance gains over the previously reported methods

Keywords: Solar Forecasting, Predictive Analysis, Recurrent Neural Network, Renewable Energy, Solar Power, Multi-time-horizon Solar Forecasting, Smart Grid