Hybrid forecasting of geopolitical events†

Daniel M. Benjamin, Fred Morstatter, Ali E. Abbas, Andrés Abeliuk, Pavel Atanasov, Stephen Bennett, Andreas Beger, Saurabh Birari, David V. Budescu, Michele Catasta, Emilio Ferrara, Lucas Haravitch, Mark Himmelstein, K. S. M. Tozammel Hossain, Yuzhong Huang, Woojeong Jin, Regina Joseph, Jure Leskovec, Akira Matsui, Mehrnoosh Mirtaheri et al. (9 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Sound decision-making relies on accurate prediction for tangible outcomes ranging from military conflict to disease outbreaks. To improve crowdsourced forecasting accuracy, we developed SAGE, a hybri...