Predicting Emergent Capabilities by Finetuning

Charlie Victor Snell, Eric Wallace, Dan Klein, Sergey Levine

Research Area: Alignment, Safety, Science of LMs

Keywords: Capability Prediction, Scaling Laws, Emergence

TL;DR: We demonstrate that it is possible to predict emergent capabilities in GPT-N+1 by fine-tuning GPT-N.

Abstract: A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable---sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps---which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: directly finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., ``emergence laws''). To validate this approach, we use four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we are able to accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged.

Code Of Ethics: I acknowledge that I and all co-authors of this work have read and commit to adhering to the COLM Code of Ethics on https://colmweb.org/CoE.html

Author Guide: I certify that this submission complies with the submission instructions as described on https://colmweb.org/AuthorGuide.html

Submission Number: 1077