Listwise Preference Diffusion Optimization for User Behavior Trajectories Prediction

Hongtao Huang, Chengkai Huang, Junda Wu, Tong Yu, Julian McAuley, Lina Yao

Keywords: User Behavior Prediction, Diffusion Models

Abstract: Forecasting multi-step user behavior trajectories requires reasoning over structured preferences across future actions, a challenge overlooked by traditional sequential recommendation. This problem is critical for applications such as personalized commerce and adaptive content delivery, where anticipating a user’s complete action sequence enhances both satisfaction and business outcomes. We identify an essential limitation of existing paradigms: their inability to capture global, listwise dependencies among sequence items. To address this, we formulate User Behavior Trajectory Prediction (UBTP) as a new task setting that explicitly models longterm user preferences. We introduce Listwise Preference Diffusion Optimization (LPDO), a diffusion-based training framework that directly optimizes structured preferences over entire item sequences. LPDO incorporates a Plackett–Luce supervision signal and derives a tight variational lower bound aligned with listwise ranking likelihoods, enabling coherent preference generation across denoising steps and overcoming the independent-token assumption of prior diffusion methods. To rigorously evaluate multi-step prediction quality, we propose the task-specific metric: Sequential Match (SeqMatch), which measures exact trajectory agreement, and adopt Perplexity (PPL), which assesses probabilistic fidelity. Extensive experiments on real-world user behavior benchmarks demonstrate that LPDO consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, establishing a new benchmark for structured preference learning with diffusion models.

Primary Area: Deep learning (e.g., architectures, generative models, optimization for deep networks, foundation models, LLMs)

Submission Number: 24648