A Post-routing ETA Model Providing Confidence Feedback

Chiqun Zhang, Dragomir Yankov, Antonios Karatzoglou, Michael R. Evans, Florin Sabau, Oussama Dhifallah

Abstract: Map search engines compute the estimated time of arrival (ETA) from location A to location B by first performing local routing-engine optimization over a network of road segments. Once the optimal route candidates are identified their ETA is reevaluated with global post-routing ETA (PostETA) models capable of correcting multiple accumulated local biases. Sequence models have emerged as the state of the art post-routing ETA predictors, however, they are usually applied as regressors fitting a single ETA value. Here we demonstrate that a route can have very different travel times for different drivers even when measured at approximately the same starting time. Fitting a distribution then, instead of a single value, and returning to users both an expectation over ETA together with a confidence range is more accurate and informative. We propose a novel PostETA system including a set of sequence-to-sequence attention models capable of fitting the route ETA distribution. On a data set of over a hundred thousand user trips we demonstrate that the system achieves accuracy comparable to that of regression models, providing in addition an accurate estimate for the variance of the ETA prediction.

External IDs:dblp:conf/gis/ZhangYKESD23